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Winter 2007 Issue
Market Update: What Bubble?
If you were following the real estate talk as 2006 wound down, you would have thought big changes were in store for our San Francisco real estate market by year's end.
Real estate prices had already soared to record highs by the beginning of 2006, following a ten-year trend of double-digit appreciation and multiple offers on properties within days of their first showings. By year's end, there were dire predictions that the "bubble" would "burst" and Bay Area real estate would experience a major correction. S.F. Chronicle headlines reflected the shift in thinking and the concurrent market slowdown:
What followed these dark predictions, however, was not quite so dramatic. While housing prices stopped rising at a steady rate, the big dip never materialized in San Francisco. Instead, we saw some price reductions and many houses staying on the market longer than sellers expected them to, as buyers adopted a "wait and see" attitude. The supply and demand ratio shifted when first-time buyers hoping to see price reductions decided to hang tight and even more homeowners unwilling to lower their prices chose to use their equity for home improvements rather than put their homes on the block.
And so we have experienced a gradual slowdown that promises to be beneficial for many. The rental market is hot again, with rents up at least 10 percent. The city's vacancy rate has dropped to below 5 percent. First-time home buyers are feeling less pressure to make hasty offers and are taking the time they should take to consider their options. And sellers are gradually embracing smart pricing that reflects the slower housing market. Another benefit of the market slowdown is that less experienced realtors - the ones who jumped into the profession when the dot coms went bust and real estate was booming - are moving on in search of easier money.
Unless you were a speculator who bought a property and hoped to turn a quick profit, you probably didn't suffer much from the slowdown in 2006. There will always be demand for San Francisco's limited housing supply - even in a slow economy. So consider your options carefully in 2007 and sell or buy based on what's right for you and your budget. The bubble, if there was one, didn't burst, and great opportunities still exist.
Contact me here for an update on your home's value
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Back to Basics: How and When to Step It Up
What is my solution to the slower housing market? Working harder and smarter. As a seasoned realtor in this business for the long haul, I know what it takes to sell a house in any financial climate. Whether you're buying or selling, my first step is to listen carefully to your goals and advise you on the best way to attain them. For sellers, it all starts with smart pricing and realistic expectations for turnaround time. In today's market, I'm spending more marketing dollars per property, making more cold calls, and working more open house shifts to maximize my clients' exposure. I focus on identifying who the likely buyers will be and target my marketing accordingly. Whatever the opportunity, success demands following up on every lead. Another element of my thorough service is the creation and maintenance of memorable property websites. (See WOW! Websites, in this issue.)
For buyers, success is a matter of knowing what you want and what you can afford, then having the patience to wait for it. In the absence of bidding wars, the pressure to make a quick decision is off, and we can take a little time to find exactly what you want. Then we'll sit down and make a list of the things you want fixed at the chosen property. When you're ready to make your move, I'll negotiate the best possible deal.
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Featured Listing: Panoramic Ashbury Heights Condo
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Sweeping, panoramic views from the ocean to the North Bay distinguish this spacious two-level, two-bedroom unit atop Ashbury Heights. The open, light-filled first floor living space is perfect for entertaining, with vaulted ceilings and tall windows showcasing the ocean, Golden Gate and North Bay. A generous kitchen with six-burner range opens to the large living and dining area. Hardwood floors and an exposed-brick fireplace in the living room create a special setting for entertaining. The master suite on the first level features an additional room with great closet space; perfect for a sitting room, home office or a changing room. The top-level master suite has a beautifully remodeled bathroom, large closet space and a luxurious Jacuzzi tub and skylights. This level also has a large, airy loft space with built-in cabinets. There are two units in this mid-century building and the condo comes with two-car parking, a separate storage unit and a deeded back yard. Move-in condition.
Sale Price: $1,267,000
View Site
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WOW! Websites
When it comes to websites, I take your property to a whole new level. I'm talking about memorable, strategic names that make it fast and easy for prospects to find your property on the Web - without having to search the MLS listings or sift through a brokerage site by neighborhood, category, price, etc. Your own private website, residing on my site but branded for your address (e.g. CliffordTerrace.com) or your type of property (e.g., FairOaksFlats.com) eliminates the risk that prospects won't find us when they're ready to make contact. "Who was that agent again?" "What was the company?" Buyers won't need to search for the answers to these questions. They'll just remember that catchy URL and BINGO - they're where they (and we) want them to be, with all the information right on their screens.
Once they're on the site, my page layout showcasing your property will WOW visitors. I advocate staging most homes with spare furnishings, selected for their elegance and city-savvy style to make spaces attractive to a wide range of viewers. Top-notch photography that sells and succinct, punchy copy pull it all together. Without fail, my property websites pique curiosity and get the phones ringing.
http://www.1740franklin.com
http://www.cliffordterrace.com
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2007: Cause for Celebration
San Francisco was consistently named the No. 1 U.S. city in Conde Nast's Traveler Magazine for the last 14 years.So it's not surprising that San Francisco's real estate market held relatively steady in 2006 in spite of dire predictions for a major correction. The really good news is - 2007 is off to a great start. There's not much inventory, which makes it a good time for sellers. Encouraged by the economy and interest rates, buyers are back and they're clamoring for properties. I'm already seeing mutiple offers. Today, as we publish this first newsletter of the year, I received four calls within two hours of posting my new listing in Pacific Heights.
So if you're wondering whether or not you should wait to buy or sell a property, here's my advice: Buyers: Get back in the game and wait for what you want. Sellers: Sell when you want to, not just when you need to, regardless of the market.
Home-sales statistics from one representative San Francisco neighborhood show that prices in the last six months of 2006 actually increased as compared with the same six-month period in 2005, despite predictions of a drastic downturn. It took longer to sell those homes, however, as the average number of days on the market increased by 30 percent. People continued to bid over asking in 2006, although the percentage over asking was much lower than in 2005, reflecting what some consider to be a return to sanity.
Market Stats Tell the Story
District 5
(Ashbury Heights, Noe Valley, Cole Valley, Eureka Valley, Liberty Hill, Castro, Glen Park)
July - December, 2006 sales for single family homes
Sales: 189
Average price: $1,349,426
Average percentage of sale price to list price: 1.98% over
Average days on market: 41
July - December, 2005 sales for single family homes
Sales: 201
Average price: $1,318,580
Average percentage of sale price to list price: 9.73% over
Average days on market: 30
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Referral Corner
2006 was a good year for me, thanks in large part to happy clients who did me the honor of recommending my services to their friends and neighbors. I have always believed that hard work and commitment to service achieve results, and it is particularly gratifying when you think to connect me with people you know who need a fine realtor. So thanks to all of you for your referrals in the past. I look forward to many more in the future!
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Hottest Estate of the Quarter
I enjoy giving my readers access to some of the most expensive homes on the market. The magnificent, 10,000 sq. ft. Beaux-Arts mansion at 3701 Washington Street is listed at $14,250,000. On one of the most desirable blocks of San Francisco's exclusive Presidio Heights, this property was the site of the 2006 SF Decorator Showcase. There are 6 bedrooms, 4 full baths and 3 half-baths in the main house, and a separate, 1200 sq. ft., two-story carriage house. The home's dramatic entry foyer leads to a sweeping three-story staircase. New owners will luxuriate in a beautiful living room, formal paneled dining room, gourmet kitchen, opulent master suite with sitting room, home office, recreation room, media room and wine cellar. And let's not forget the three fireplaces and two-car garage. Home, sweet home!
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